9122 Newkay Ln, Spring, TX 77379
4bd / 2.5ba · 1,658 sqft · built 1983 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Jul 9, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-82.0%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$19,000
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$32,870
Max Bid @ 20%
$129,566
−$32,870 profit ÷ $40,086 total invested = -82.0%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$221,749
Purchase (95% LTV)
$156,749
Rehab (100%)
$65,000
Loan-to-ARV
87.6%
Monthly Interest
$1,846/mo
Down Payment5% of $164,999 purchase
$8,250+
Origination Fee1 pts on $221,749 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,250=
Cash to First Close
$19,000Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,846/mo × 6$11,076
Property Taxes$393/mo × 6$2,360
Insurance$192/mo × 6$1,150
Total Holding Costs$14,586
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$6,500
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$253,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$221,749−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$8,855−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$15,180=
Net Proceeds to You
$7,216Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$7,216−
Cash to First Close
$19,000−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$14,586−
Contingency Reserve
$6,500=
NET PROFIT
−$32,870Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $132,585 | −$32,414 |
| 15% | $131,065 | −$33,934 |
| 20% ← | $129,566 | −$35,433 |
| 25% | $128,088 | −$36,911 |
| 30% | $126,630 | −$38,369 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.086x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$109/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
1.9%
$68,053 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$221,749
Purchase (95% LTV)
$156,749
Rehab (100%)
$65,000
Loan-to-ARV
87.6%
Monthly Interest
$1,846/mo
Down Payment5% of $164,999 purchase
$8,250+
Origination Fee1 pts on $221,749 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,250=
Cash to First Close
$19,000Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,846/mo × 2$3,692
Property Taxes$393/mo × 2$787
Insurance$192/mo × 2$383
Total Holding Costs$4,862
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$6,500
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$189,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$221,749−
Origination Fee1 pts on $189,750
$1,898−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,795=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$37,692Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$19,000+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$4,862+
Contingency Reserve
$6,500−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$37,692=
Capital Left in Deal
$68,053Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$253,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$189,750=
Equity in Property
$63,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$68,053=
Value Created
−$4,803$63,250 equity on $68,053 deployed = 0.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,238−
Property Taxes
$393−
Insurance
$192−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$134−
Management (6% rent)
$134=
OpEx Subtotal
$853=
Net Operating Income
$1,385−
DSCR P&I
$1,275/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$109/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$189,750
Monthly P&I$1,275/mo
Net Cash Flow$109/mo
Cash Still Required−$37,692
DSCR
1.086x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.203x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $37,692
Loan Amount$189,750
Monthly P&I$1,275/mo
Net Cash Flow$109/mo
Cash Still Required−$37,692
DSCR
1.086x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.203x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,114/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $2,259/mo | +$21 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,404/mo | +$166 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,548/mo | +$310 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,693/mo | +$455 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.086x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$109/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
2.1%
$61,861 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$164,999+
Rehab Budget
$65,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,250=
Total Cash to First Close
$238,249Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$393/mo × 2$787
Insurance$192/mo × 2$383
Total Holding Costs$1,170
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$6,500
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$189,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $189,750
$1,898−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,795=
Net Cash Recovered
$184,058Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$238,249+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,170+
Contingency Reserve
$6,500−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$184,058=
Capital Left in Deal
$61,861Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$253,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$189,750=
Equity in Property
$63,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$61,861=
Value Created
$1,389$63,250 equity on $61,861 deployed = 1.0× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,238−
Property Taxes
$393−
Insurance
$192−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$134−
Management (6% rent)
$134=
OpEx Subtotal
$853=
Net Operating Income
$1,385−
DSCR P&I
$1,275/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$109/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$189,750
Monthly P&I$1,275/mo
Net Cash Flow$109/mo
Cash Still Required−$61,861
DSCR
1.086x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.203x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $61,861
Loan Amount$189,750
Monthly P&I$1,275/mo
Net Cash Flow$109/mo
Cash Still Required−$61,861
DSCR
1.086x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.203x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,114/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $2,259/mo | +$21 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,404/mo | +$166 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,548/mo | +$310 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,693/mo | +$455 needed |