23 Bear Grove Dr, Missouri City, TX 77459
4bd / 3ba · 3,092 sqft · built 2012 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed May 26, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-25.9%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$41,855
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$18,209
Max Bid @ 20%
$351,755
−$18,209 profit ÷ $70,277 total invested = -25.9%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$385,953
Purchase (95% LTV)
$360,953
Rehab (100%)
$25,000
Loan-to-ARV
79.7%
Monthly Interest
$3,213/mo
Down Payment5% of $379,950 purchase
$18,998+
Origination Fee1 pts on $385,953 loan
$3,860+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$18,998=
Cash to First Close
$41,855Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $3,213/mo × 6$19,278
Property Taxes$770/mo × 6$4,619
Insurance$337/mo × 6$2,025
Total Holding Costs$25,922
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,500
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$484,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$385,953−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$16,940−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$29,040=
Net Proceeds to You
$52,068Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$52,068−
Cash to First Close
$41,855−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$25,922−
Contingency Reserve
$2,500=
NET PROFIT
−$18,209Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $357,580 | −$22,370 |
| 15% | $354,647 | −$25,303 |
| 20% ← | $351,755 | −$28,195 |
| 25% | $348,904 | −$31,046 |
| 30% | $346,093 | −$33,857 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.694x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$747/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-10.3%
$86,838 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$385,953
Purchase (95% LTV)
$360,953
Rehab (100%)
$25,000
Loan-to-ARV
79.7%
Monthly Interest
$3,213/mo
Down Payment5% of $379,950 purchase
$18,998+
Origination Fee1 pts on $385,953 loan
$3,860+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$18,998=
Cash to First Close
$41,855Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $3,213/mo × 2$6,426
Property Taxes$770/mo × 2$1,540
Insurance$337/mo × 2$675
Total Holding Costs$8,641
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,500
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$363,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$385,953−
Origination Fee1 pts on $363,000
$3,630−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$7,260=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$33,843Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$41,855+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$8,641+
Contingency Reserve
$2,500−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$33,843=
Capital Left in Deal
$86,838Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$484,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$363,000=
Equity in Property
$121,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$86,838=
Value Created
$34,162$121,000 equity on $86,838 deployed = 1.4× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$3,181−
Property Taxes
$770−
Insurance
$337−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$191−
Management (6% rent)
$191=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,489=
Net Operating Income
$1,692−
DSCR P&I
$2,439/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$747/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$363,000
Monthly P&I$2,439/mo
Net Cash Flow−$747/mo
Cash Still Required−$33,843
DSCR
0.694x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.897x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $33,843
Loan Amount$363,000
Monthly P&I$2,439/mo
Net Cash Flow−$747/mo
Cash Still Required−$33,843
DSCR
0.694x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.897x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $4,030/mo | +$849 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,308/mo | +$1,127 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,585/mo | +$1,404 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,862/mo | +$1,681 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,139/mo | +$1,958 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.694x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$747/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-11.7%
$76,552 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$379,950+
Rehab Budget
$25,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$18,998=
Total Cash to First Close
$423,948Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$770/mo × 2$1,540
Insurance$337/mo × 2$675
Total Holding Costs$2,215
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,500
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$363,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $363,000
$3,630−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$7,260=
Net Cash Recovered
$352,110Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$423,948+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$2,215+
Contingency Reserve
$2,500−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$352,110=
Capital Left in Deal
$76,552Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$484,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$363,000=
Equity in Property
$121,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$76,552=
Value Created
$44,448$121,000 equity on $76,552 deployed = 1.6× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$3,181−
Property Taxes
$770−
Insurance
$337−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$191−
Management (6% rent)
$191=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,489=
Net Operating Income
$1,692−
DSCR P&I
$2,439/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$747/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$363,000
Monthly P&I$2,439/mo
Net Cash Flow−$747/mo
Cash Still Required−$76,552
DSCR
0.694x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.897x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $76,552
Loan Amount$363,000
Monthly P&I$2,439/mo
Net Cash Flow−$747/mo
Cash Still Required−$76,552
DSCR
0.694x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.897x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $4,030/mo | +$849 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,308/mo | +$1,127 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,585/mo | +$1,404 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,862/mo | +$1,681 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,139/mo | +$1,958 needed |