2206 Thousand Pines Dr, Kingwood, TX 77339
4bd / 2.5ba · 2,598 sqft · built 1973 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Jun 10, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-73.9%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$27,975
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$39,051
Max Bid @ 20%
$206,634
−$39,051 profit ÷ $52,871 total invested = -73.9%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$297,499
Purchase (95% LTV)
$237,499
Rehab (100%)
$60,000
Loan-to-ARV
86.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,477/mo
Down Payment5% of $249,999 purchase
$12,500+
Origination Fee1 pts on $297,499 loan
$2,975+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,500=
Cash to First Close
$27,975Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,477/mo × 6$14,860
Property Taxes$414/mo × 6$2,487
Insurance$258/mo × 6$1,550
Total Holding Costs$18,897
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$6,000
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$344,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$297,499−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$12,040−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$20,640=
Net Proceeds to You
$13,821Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$13,821−
Cash to First Close
$27,975−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$18,897−
Contingency Reserve
$6,000=
NET PROFIT
−$39,051Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $210,698 | −$39,301 |
| 15% | $208,651 | −$41,348 |
| 20% ← | $206,634 | −$43,365 |
| 25% | $204,644 | −$45,355 |
| 30% | $202,683 | −$47,316 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.844x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$270/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-3.7%
$87,513 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$297,499
Purchase (95% LTV)
$237,499
Rehab (100%)
$60,000
Loan-to-ARV
86.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,477/mo
Down Payment5% of $249,999 purchase
$12,500+
Origination Fee1 pts on $297,499 loan
$2,975+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,500=
Cash to First Close
$27,975Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,477/mo × 2$4,953
Property Taxes$414/mo × 2$829
Insurance$258/mo × 2$517
Total Holding Costs$6,299
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$6,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$258,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$297,499−
Origination Fee1 pts on $258,000
$2,580−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,160=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$47,239Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$27,975+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$6,299+
Contingency Reserve
$6,000−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$47,239=
Capital Left in Deal
$87,513Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$344,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$258,000=
Equity in Property
$86,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$87,513=
Value Created
−$1,513$86,000 equity on $87,513 deployed = 1.0× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,428−
Property Taxes
$414−
Insurance
$258−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$146−
Management (6% rent)
$146=
OpEx Subtotal
$964=
Net Operating Income
$1,464−
DSCR P&I
$1,734/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$270/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$258,000
Monthly P&I$1,734/mo
Net Cash Flow−$270/mo
Cash Still Required−$47,239
DSCR
0.844x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.009x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $47,239
Loan Amount$258,000
Monthly P&I$1,734/mo
Net Cash Flow−$270/mo
Cash Still Required−$47,239
DSCR
0.844x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.009x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,735/mo | +$307 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,932/mo | +$504 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,129/mo | +$701 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,326/mo | +$898 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,523/mo | +$1,095 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.844x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$270/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-4.1%
$79,584 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$249,999+
Rehab Budget
$60,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,500=
Total Cash to First Close
$322,499Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$414/mo × 2$829
Insurance$258/mo × 2$517
Total Holding Costs$1,345
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$6,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$258,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $258,000
$2,580−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,160=
Net Cash Recovered
$250,260Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$322,499+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,345+
Contingency Reserve
$6,000−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$250,260=
Capital Left in Deal
$79,584Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$344,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$258,000=
Equity in Property
$86,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$79,584=
Value Created
$6,416$86,000 equity on $79,584 deployed = 1.1× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,428−
Property Taxes
$414−
Insurance
$258−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$146−
Management (6% rent)
$146=
OpEx Subtotal
$964=
Net Operating Income
$1,464−
DSCR P&I
$1,734/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$270/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$258,000
Monthly P&I$1,734/mo
Net Cash Flow−$270/mo
Cash Still Required−$79,584
DSCR
0.844x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.009x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $79,584
Loan Amount$258,000
Monthly P&I$1,734/mo
Net Cash Flow−$270/mo
Cash Still Required−$79,584
DSCR
0.844x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.009x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,735/mo | +$307 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,932/mo | +$504 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,129/mo | +$701 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,326/mo | +$898 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,523/mo | +$1,095 needed |