202 E 38th St, Houston, TX 77018
2bd / 1ba · 1,328 sqft · built 1965 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed May 13, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-7.3%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$19,000
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$8,490
Max Bid @ 20%
$138,127
−$8,490 profit ÷ $116,905 total invested = -7.3%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$156,750
Purchase (95% LTV)
$156,750
Loan-to-ARV
53.5%
Monthly Interest
$1,305/mo
Down Payment5% of $165,000 purchase
$8,250+
Origination Fee1 pts on $156,750 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,250=
Cash to First Close
$19,000Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,305/mo × 6$7,830
Property Taxes$14,875/mo × 6$89,250
Insurance$138/mo × 6$825
Total Holding Costs$97,905
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$293,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$156,750−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$10,255−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$17,580=
Net Proceeds to You
$108,415Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$108,415−
Cash to First Close
$19,000−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$97,905=
NET PROFIT
−$8,490Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $148,021 | −$16,979 |
| 15% | $143,039 | −$21,961 |
| 20% ← | $138,127 | −$26,873 |
| 25% | $133,285 | −$31,715 |
| 30% | $128,509 | −$36,491 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
-8.985x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$14,746/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
N/A
−$4,773 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$156,750
Purchase (95% LTV)
$156,750
Loan-to-ARV
53.5%
Monthly Interest
$1,305/mo
Down Payment5% of $165,000 purchase
$8,250+
Origination Fee1 pts on $156,750 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,250=
Cash to First Close
$19,000Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,305/mo × 2$2,610
Property Taxes$14,875/mo × 2$29,750
Insurance$138/mo × 2$275
Total Holding Costs$32,635
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$219,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$156,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $219,750
$2,198−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,395=
Cash Back to You
+$56,408Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$19,000+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$32,635−
Cash Back at Refi
−$56,408=
Capital Left in Deal
−$4,773Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$293,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$219,750=
Equity in Property
$73,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
−$4,773=
Value Created
$78,023Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,981−
Property Taxes
$14,875−
Insurance
$138−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$119−
Management (6% rent)
$119=
OpEx Subtotal
$15,250=
Net Operating Income
−$13,269−
DSCR P&I
$1,477/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$14,746/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$219,750
Monthly P&I$1,477/mo
Net Cash Flow−$14,746/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$56,408
DSCR
-8.985x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.120x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
55.2% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$161,598
Monthly P&I$1,086/mo
Net Cash Flow−$14,355/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
-12.219x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.123x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $18,738/mo | +$16,757 needed |
| 1.10x | $18,906/mo | +$16,925 needed |
| 1.20x | $19,073/mo | +$17,092 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $19,241/mo | +$17,260 needed |
| 1.40x | $19,409/mo | +$17,428 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
-8.985x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$14,746/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
N/A
−$9,882 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$165,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,250=
Total Cash to First Close
$173,250Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$14,875/mo × 2$29,750
Insurance$138/mo × 2$275
Total Holding Costs$30,025
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$219,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $219,750
$2,198−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,395=
Net Cash Recovered
$213,158Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$173,250+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$30,025−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$213,158=
Capital Left in Deal
−$9,882Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$293,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$219,750=
Equity in Property
$73,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
−$9,882=
Value Created
$83,133Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,981−
Property Taxes
$14,875−
Insurance
$138−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$119−
Management (6% rent)
$119=
OpEx Subtotal
$15,250=
Net Operating Income
−$13,269−
DSCR P&I
$1,477/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$14,746/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$219,750
Monthly P&I$1,477/mo
Net Cash Flow−$14,746/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$9,883
DSCR
-8.985x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.120x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
71.5% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$209,562
Monthly P&I$1,408/mo
Net Cash Flow−$14,678/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
-9.422x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.121x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $18,738/mo | +$16,757 needed |
| 1.10x | $18,906/mo | +$16,925 needed |
| 1.20x | $19,073/mo | +$17,092 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $19,241/mo | +$17,260 needed |
| 1.40x | $19,409/mo | +$17,428 needed |