16010 Long Neck Dr, Magnolia, TX 77355
6bd / 4ba · 3,452 sqft · built 2015 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Jun 3, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
336.0%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$30,313
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$166,841
Max Bid @ 20%
$412,117
$166,841 profit ÷ $49,659 total invested = 336.0%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$281,250
Purchase (95% LTV)
$261,250
Rehab (100%)
$20,000
Loan-to-ARV
51.1%
Monthly Interest
$2,341/mo
Down Payment5% of $275,000 purchase
$13,750+
Origination Fee1 pts on $281,250 loan
$2,813+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,750=
Cash to First Close
$30,313Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,341/mo × 6$14,048
Property Taxes$304/mo × 6$1,823
Insurance$246/mo × 6$1,475
Total Holding Costs$17,346
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,000
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$550,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$281,250−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$19,250−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$33,000=
Net Proceeds to You
$216,500Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$216,500−
Cash to First Close
$30,313−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$17,346−
Contingency Reserve
$2,000=
NET PROFIT
$166,841Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $418,488 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $415,280 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $412,117 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $408,999 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $405,925 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.700x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$831/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
N/A
−$80,780 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$281,250
Purchase (95% LTV)
$261,250
Rehab (100%)
$20,000
Loan-to-ARV
51.1%
Monthly Interest
$2,341/mo
Down Payment5% of $275,000 purchase
$13,750+
Origination Fee1 pts on $281,250 loan
$2,813+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,750=
Cash to First Close
$30,313Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,341/mo × 2$4,683
Property Taxes$304/mo × 2$608
Insurance$246/mo × 2$492
Total Holding Costs$5,782
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$412,500−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$281,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $412,500
$4,125−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$8,250=
Cash Back to You
+$118,875Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$30,313+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,782+
Contingency Reserve
$2,000−
Cash Back at Refi
−$118,875=
Capital Left in Deal
−$80,780Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$550,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$412,500=
Equity in Property
$137,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
−$80,780=
Value Created
$218,280Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,830−
Property Taxes
$304−
Insurance
$246−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$170−
Management (6% rent)
$170=
OpEx Subtotal
$889=
Net Operating Income
$1,941−
DSCR P&I
$2,772/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$831/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$412,500
Monthly P&I$2,772/mo
Net Cash Flow−$831/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$118,875
DSCR
0.700x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.852x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
52.7% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$289,948
Monthly P&I$1,949/mo
Net Cash Flow−$8/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.996x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.133x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,775/mo | +$945 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,090/mo | +$1,260 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,405/mo | +$1,575 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,720/mo | +$1,890 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,035/mo | +$2,205 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.700x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$831/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
N/A
−$88,276 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$275,000+
Rehab Budget
$20,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,750=
Total Cash to First Close
$308,750Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$304/mo × 2$608
Insurance$246/mo × 2$492
Total Holding Costs$1,099
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$412,500−
Origination Fee1 pts on $412,500
$4,125−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$8,250=
Net Cash Recovered
$400,125Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$308,750+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,099+
Contingency Reserve
$2,000−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$400,125=
Capital Left in Deal
−$88,276Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$550,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$412,500=
Equity in Property
$137,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
−$88,276=
Value Created
$225,776Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,830−
Property Taxes
$304−
Insurance
$246−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$170−
Management (6% rent)
$170=
OpEx Subtotal
$889=
Net Operating Income
$1,941−
DSCR P&I
$2,772/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$831/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$412,500
Monthly P&I$2,772/mo
Net Cash Flow−$831/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$88,276
DSCR
0.700x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.852x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
58.5% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$321,494
Monthly P&I$2,161/mo
Net Cash Flow−$220/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.898x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.044x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,775/mo | +$945 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,090/mo | +$1,260 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,405/mo | +$1,575 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,720/mo | +$1,890 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,035/mo | +$2,205 needed |