15707 Amapola Dr, Houston, TX 77083
3bd / 2ba · 2,144 sqft · built 1979 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed May 21, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-108.0%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$21,500
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$45,067
Max Bid @ 20%
$143,529
−$45,067 profit ÷ $41,723 total invested = -108.0%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$230,499
Purchase (95% LTV)
$180,499
Rehab (100%)
$50,000
Loan-to-ARV
91.8%
Monthly Interest
$1,919/mo
Down Payment5% of $189,999 purchase
$9,500+
Origination Fee1 pts on $230,499 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,500=
Cash to First Close
$21,500Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,919/mo × 6$11,513
Property Taxes$418/mo × 6$2,510
Insurance$200/mo × 6$1,200
Total Holding Costs$15,223
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$5,000
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$251,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$230,499−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$8,785−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$15,060=
Net Proceeds to You
−$3,344Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
−$3,344−
Cash to First Close
$21,500−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$15,223−
Contingency Reserve
$5,000=
NET PROFIT
−$45,067Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $146,543 | −$43,456 |
| 15% | $145,025 | −$44,974 |
| 20% ← | $143,529 | −$46,470 |
| 25% | $142,054 | −$47,945 |
| 30% | $140,599 | −$49,400 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.871x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$163/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-2.5%
$79,471 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$230,499
Purchase (95% LTV)
$180,499
Rehab (100%)
$50,000
Loan-to-ARV
91.8%
Monthly Interest
$1,919/mo
Down Payment5% of $189,999 purchase
$9,500+
Origination Fee1 pts on $230,499 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,500=
Cash to First Close
$21,500Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,919/mo × 2$3,838
Property Taxes$418/mo × 2$837
Insurance$200/mo × 2$400
Total Holding Costs$5,074
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$5,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$188,250−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$230,499−
Origination Fee1 pts on $188,250
$1,883−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,765=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$47,897Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$21,500+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,074+
Contingency Reserve
$5,000−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$47,897=
Capital Left in Deal
$79,471Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$251,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$188,250=
Equity in Property
$62,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$79,471=
Value Created
−$16,721$62,750 equity on $79,471 deployed = 0.8× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,955−
Property Taxes
$418−
Insurance
$200−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$117−
Management (6% rent)
$117=
OpEx Subtotal
$853=
Net Operating Income
$1,102−
DSCR P&I
$1,265/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$163/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$188,250
Monthly P&I$1,265/mo
Net Cash Flow−$163/mo
Cash Still Required−$47,897
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.038x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $47,897
Loan Amount$188,250
Monthly P&I$1,265/mo
Net Cash Flow−$163/mo
Cash Still Required−$47,897
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.038x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,140/mo | +$185 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,284/mo | +$329 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,428/mo | +$473 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,571/mo | +$616 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,715/mo | +$760 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.871x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$163/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-2.7%
$73,133 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$189,999+
Rehab Budget
$50,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,500=
Total Cash to First Close
$249,499Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$418/mo × 2$837
Insurance$200/mo × 2$400
Total Holding Costs$1,236
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$5,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$188,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $188,250
$1,883−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,765=
Net Cash Recovered
$182,603Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$249,499+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,236+
Contingency Reserve
$5,000−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$182,603=
Capital Left in Deal
$73,133Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$251,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$188,250=
Equity in Property
$62,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$73,133=
Value Created
−$10,383$62,750 equity on $73,133 deployed = 0.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,955−
Property Taxes
$418−
Insurance
$200−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$117−
Management (6% rent)
$117=
OpEx Subtotal
$853=
Net Operating Income
$1,102−
DSCR P&I
$1,265/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$163/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$188,250
Monthly P&I$1,265/mo
Net Cash Flow−$163/mo
Cash Still Required−$73,133
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.038x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $73,133
Loan Amount$188,250
Monthly P&I$1,265/mo
Net Cash Flow−$163/mo
Cash Still Required−$73,133
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.038x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,140/mo | +$185 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,284/mo | +$329 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,428/mo | +$473 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,571/mo | +$616 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,715/mo | +$760 needed |