15626 Ripplewind Ln, Houston, TX 77068
3bd / 2.5ba · 2,433 sqft · built 1978 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed May 18, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-50.7%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$20,500
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$22,464
Max Bid @ 20%
$152,660
−$22,464 profit ÷ $44,345 total invested = -50.7%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$245,999
Purchase (95% LTV)
$170,999
Rehab (100%)
$75,000
Loan-to-ARV
83.1%
Monthly Interest
$2,048/mo
Down Payment5% of $179,999 purchase
$9,000+
Origination Fee1 pts on $245,999 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,000=
Cash to First Close
$20,500Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,048/mo × 6$12,288
Property Taxes$464/mo × 6$2,783
Insurance$212/mo × 6$1,275
Total Holding Costs$16,345
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$7,500
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$296,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$245,999−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$10,360−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$17,760=
Net Proceeds to You
$21,881Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$21,881−
Cash to First Close
$20,500−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$16,345−
Contingency Reserve
$7,500=
NET PROFIT
−$22,464Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $156,195 | −$23,804 |
| 15% | $154,415 | −$25,584 |
| 20% ← | $152,660 | −$27,339 |
| 25% | $150,930 | −$29,069 |
| 30% | $149,224 | −$30,775 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.903x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$144/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-2.7%
$64,107 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$245,999
Purchase (95% LTV)
$170,999
Rehab (100%)
$75,000
Loan-to-ARV
83.1%
Monthly Interest
$2,048/mo
Down Payment5% of $179,999 purchase
$9,000+
Origination Fee1 pts on $245,999 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,000=
Cash to First Close
$20,500Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,048/mo × 2$4,096
Property Taxes$464/mo × 2$928
Insurance$212/mo × 2$425
Total Holding Costs$5,448
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$7,500
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$222,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$245,999−
Origination Fee1 pts on $222,000
$2,220−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,440=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$30,659Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$20,500+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,448+
Contingency Reserve
$7,500−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$30,659=
Capital Left in Deal
$64,107Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$296,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$222,000=
Equity in Property
$74,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$64,107=
Value Created
$9,893$74,000 equity on $64,107 deployed = 1.2× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,300−
Property Taxes
$464−
Insurance
$212−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$138−
Management (6% rent)
$138=
OpEx Subtotal
$952=
Net Operating Income
$1,348−
DSCR P&I
$1,492/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$144/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$222,000
Monthly P&I$1,492/mo
Net Cash Flow−$144/mo
Cash Still Required−$30,659
DSCR
0.903x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.061x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $30,659
Loan Amount$222,000
Monthly P&I$1,492/mo
Net Cash Flow−$144/mo
Cash Still Required−$30,659
DSCR
0.903x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.061x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,464/mo | +$164 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,633/mo | +$333 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,803/mo | +$503 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,972/mo | +$672 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,142/mo | +$842 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.903x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$144/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-3.0%
$57,511 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$179,999+
Rehab Budget
$75,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,000=
Total Cash to First Close
$263,999Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$464/mo × 2$928
Insurance$212/mo × 2$425
Total Holding Costs$1,352
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$7,500
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$222,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $222,000
$2,220−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,440=
Net Cash Recovered
$215,340Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$263,999+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,352+
Contingency Reserve
$7,500−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$215,340=
Capital Left in Deal
$57,511Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$296,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$222,000=
Equity in Property
$74,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$57,511=
Value Created
$16,489$74,000 equity on $57,511 deployed = 1.3× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,300−
Property Taxes
$464−
Insurance
$212−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$138−
Management (6% rent)
$138=
OpEx Subtotal
$952=
Net Operating Income
$1,348−
DSCR P&I
$1,492/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$144/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$222,000
Monthly P&I$1,492/mo
Net Cash Flow−$144/mo
Cash Still Required−$57,511
DSCR
0.903x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.061x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $57,511
Loan Amount$222,000
Monthly P&I$1,492/mo
Net Cash Flow−$144/mo
Cash Still Required−$57,511
DSCR
0.903x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.061x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,464/mo | +$164 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,633/mo | +$333 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,803/mo | +$503 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,972/mo | +$672 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,142/mo | +$842 needed |