15011 Cozy Hollow Ln, Houston, TX 77044
5bd / 3.5ba · 3,063 sqft · built 2004 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Jun 16, 2026$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-89.4%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$33,250
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$52,414
Max Bid @ 20%
$243,947
−$52,414 profit ÷ $58,645 total invested = -89.4%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$324,999
Purchase (95% LTV)
$284,999
Rehab (100%)
$40,000
Loan-to-ARV
88.8%
Monthly Interest
$2,706/mo
Down Payment5% of $299,999 purchase
$15,000+
Origination Fee1 pts on $324,999 loan
$3,250+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,000=
Cash to First Close
$33,250Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,706/mo × 6$16,234
Property Taxes$577/mo × 6$3,461
Insurance$283/mo × 6$1,700
Total Holding Costs$21,395
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$4,000
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$366,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$324,999−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$12,810−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$21,960=
Net Proceeds to You
$6,231Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$6,231−
Cash to First Close
$33,250−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$21,395−
Contingency Reserve
$4,000=
NET PROFIT
−$52,414Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $248,341 | −$51,658 |
| 15% | $246,128 | −$53,871 |
| 20% ← | $243,947 | −$56,052 |
| 25% | $241,797 | −$58,202 |
| 30% | $239,676 | −$60,323 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.741x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$478/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-5.6%
$103,116 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$324,999
Purchase (95% LTV)
$284,999
Rehab (100%)
$40,000
Loan-to-ARV
88.8%
Monthly Interest
$2,706/mo
Down Payment5% of $299,999 purchase
$15,000+
Origination Fee1 pts on $324,999 loan
$3,250+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,000=
Cash to First Close
$33,250Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,706/mo × 2$5,411
Property Taxes$577/mo × 2$1,154
Insurance$283/mo × 2$567
Total Holding Costs$7,132
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$4,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$274,500−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$324,999−
Origination Fee1 pts on $274,500
$2,745−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,490=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$58,734Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$33,250+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$7,132+
Contingency Reserve
$4,000−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$58,734=
Capital Left in Deal
$103,116Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$366,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$274,500=
Equity in Property
$91,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$103,116=
Value Created
−$11,616$91,500 equity on $103,116 deployed = 0.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,530−
Property Taxes
$577−
Insurance
$283−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$152−
Management (6% rent)
$152=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,164=
Net Operating Income
$1,366−
DSCR P&I
$1,845/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$478/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$274,500
Monthly P&I$1,845/mo
Net Cash Flow−$478/mo
Cash Still Required−$58,734
DSCR
0.741x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.935x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $58,734
Loan Amount$274,500
Monthly P&I$1,845/mo
Net Cash Flow−$478/mo
Cash Still Required−$58,734
DSCR
0.741x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.935x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,074/mo | +$544 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,283/mo | +$753 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,493/mo | +$963 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,703/mo | +$1,173 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,912/mo | +$1,382 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.741x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$478/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-6.1%
$94,454 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$299,999+
Rehab Budget
$40,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,000=
Total Cash to First Close
$354,999Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$577/mo × 2$1,154
Insurance$283/mo × 2$567
Total Holding Costs$1,720
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$4,000
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$274,500−
Origination Fee1 pts on $274,500
$2,745−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,490=
Net Cash Recovered
$266,265Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$354,999+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,720+
Contingency Reserve
$4,000−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$266,265=
Capital Left in Deal
$94,454Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$366,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$274,500=
Equity in Property
$91,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$94,454=
Value Created
−$2,954$91,500 equity on $94,454 deployed = 1.0× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,530−
Property Taxes
$577−
Insurance
$283−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$152−
Management (6% rent)
$152=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,164=
Net Operating Income
$1,366−
DSCR P&I
$1,845/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$478/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$274,500
Monthly P&I$1,845/mo
Net Cash Flow−$478/mo
Cash Still Required−$94,454
DSCR
0.741x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.935x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $94,454
Loan Amount$274,500
Monthly P&I$1,845/mo
Net Cash Flow−$478/mo
Cash Still Required−$94,454
DSCR
0.741x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.935x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,074/mo | +$544 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,283/mo | +$753 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,493/mo | +$963 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,703/mo | +$1,173 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,912/mo | +$1,382 needed |